Cotton Weather Dashboard

SIGNAL: BULLISH — heat stress compounding drought across multiple squaring and flowering regions with no meaningful temperature relief in the extended outlook Arizona's irrigated flowering acres are operating under an average temperature of 101.8°F with a 2-inch soil temperature of 105.6°F, conditions that place sustained heat stress well above the 95°F threshold at which pollen viability degrades and boll set efficiency declines — and with days 8–15 precipitation probability at just 9.3%, there is no convective relief on the horizon to moderate canopy temperatures. West Texas, squaring at an average of 86.9°F with ET demand running at 0.3 in/day against only 0.9 inches of 7-day precipitation, sits on the cusp of damaging heat stress; the Texas statewide crop condition already reflects the strain, with only 39% rated G/E and 25% VP/P, and any further temperature escalation during this critical squaring window will accelerate square shed on dryland acres that have no irrigation buffer. Georgia and the Southeast, with flowering crops averaging 86.8°F, ET demand at 0.3 in/day, and a meager 0.1 inches of 7-day precipitation against D0-to-D2 drought designations, face compounding moisture and heat stress that threatens boll set efficiency and creates early micronaire risk on stressed plants — with just 9% of Georgia's crop rated G/E and 9% VP/P, we believe the quality discount risk on Southeast lots is already building. Frost exposure is not a near-term concern for any region, but we do feel the combination of above-threshold heat in Arizona, marginal heat stress in Texas and Georgia, and extended-range ensemble precipitation probabilities below 50% across most of the belt represents a temperature regime that is difficult to characterize as anything other than net-bullish for December ICE.

SIGNAL: BULLISH — multi-region drought footprint at squaring and flowering stages threatens dryland yield and elevates abandonment risk across the belt Drought conditions across the cotton belt are materially worse than seasonal norms would tolerate at this stage of crop development, with West Texas stations reporting a drought mosaic that includes D2 and D3 categories against an ET demand of 0.3 in/day and a 2-inch soil temperature of 88.0°F — a combination that places dryland squares under acute moisture stress precisely when root systems should be establishing the hydraulic capacity to support boll load through July. Texas G/E ratings stand at only 39% with VP/P at 25%, and with only 0.9 inches of 7-day precipitation measured across 24 West Texas stations against that 0.3 in/day ET draw, the soil moisture deficit is widening rather than narrowing at the worst possible moment in the squaring window. The Carolinas present a secondary concern that the market may be underweighting: D2 and D3 drought categories are present across that 6-station network, ET demand is running at 0.3 in/day, and with only 0.3 inches of 7-day precipitation recorded and an 8-to-15-day ensemble probability of precipitation at just 46.1%, the squaring crop there — currently 48% squared in North Carolina and 30% in South Carolina — faces meaningful stress that could suppress boll-set efficiency and ultimately compress yield potential on dryland acres. We believe that if the current drought footprint across West Texas, inclusive of D3 coverage, holds through the next three to four weeks of active boll set, dryland abandonment rates will in all likelihood exceed the five-year average materially, reducing effective Southwest production sufficiently to tighten the domestic carryout calculus and provide a structural floor under December ICE futures that commercial hedging pressure alone will struggle to erode.

RISK: MODERATE — scattered convective activity threatens portions of the flowering cotton belt with hail and wind damage during a critical boll-setting window The SPC Day 1–3 outlook carries at least marginal-to-slight risk across the southern Plains and into East Texas and Louisiana, where 7-day precipitation has reached only 0.5 inches against an ET demand of 0.2 in/day and ensemble days 8–15 probability of precipitation sits at 30.6%, meaning any convective event in the next 72 hours would arrive on crops already carrying modest moisture deficits under D1 and D2 drought classifications. The Mississippi Delta region warrants closer attention given the presence of D3 and D4 drought categories within the station footprint alongside an average temperature of 82.2°F and a 7-day precip total of 0.8 inches — conditions that have set up an unstable moisture gradient capable of producing organized convection, and WPC ERO marginal-to-slight excessive rainfall probabilities exist for portions of the Mid-South where 38.4% ensemble precipitation probability in the days 8–15 window suggests a pattern shift may be approaching but does not mitigate near-term convective hail and straight-line wind exposure on Delta cotton that is actively flowering with only 5% of Mississippi acres setting bolls. Georgia and Southeast cotton face the most acute near-term convective dryness contrast, with a 7-day precip total of just 0.1 inches, ET demand at 0.3 in/day, soil temperatures at the 2-inch depth of 84.5°F, and 9% of Georgia acres already rated very poor to poor — any hail-producing storm on squaring and early-flowering acreage in that 58% good-to-excellent state risks direct structural damage to squares and early bolls, a yield outcome that would not be captured in condition ratings until next week's NASS release but would be immediately actionable for basis levels at the Corpus

SIGNAL: BULLISH — drought coverage across multiple key production regions at squaring and flowering stages elevates seasonal supply risk ahead of boll fill We believe the seasonal setup carries a meaningful bullish lean for December ICE cotton, with West Texas at squaring under conditions of documented D1-through-D3 drought coverage and a 7-day precipitation total of only 0.9 inches against an ET demand running at 0.3 in/day — a deficit posture that, if sustained into boll fill, will translate directly into elevated dryland abandonment on Texas acres where G/E ratings sit at just 39% and VP/P has already reached 25%, the worst condition profile in the belt. The Carolinas present an additional concern we do not think the market has fully priced: squaring-stage cotton is operating under D2-D3 drought with 7-day precip of only 0.3 inches and ET demand of 0.3 in/day, and with days-8-through-15 ensemble precipitation probability at 46.1%, relief is plausible but far from assured, while Georgia's flowering crop is similarly stressed with only 0.1 inches of 7-day rainfall against 0.3 in/day ET demand and a G/E rating of just 58% alongside 9% VP/P — conditions that in our experience will begin showing up in setting-boll counts within two to three weeks if the moisture deficit is not resolved. We have noted that the prevailing ENSO analog for the 2026 season — a La Niña transitioning toward neutral — has historically been associated with below-normal summer precipitation across West Texas and the Southern Plains, a pattern that in prior analogs such as 2011 and 2022 drove abandonment rates on Texas dryland acres above 50% and pushed December futures sharply higher into the fall marketing window. For a merchant or grower holding unpriced new-crop cotton or managing on-call sales against December futures, in our opinion the seasonal risk premium embedded in current price